Chad I Stevens on LinkedIn: European gas traders shun Ukraine storage after Russian attacks (2024)

“Two German warships await orders from Berlin, their commander said, to determine whether next month they will be the first German naval vessels in decades to pass through the Taiwan Strait, drawing a rebuke from Beijing.”“While the US and other nations, including Canada, have sent warships through the narrow strait in recent weeks, it would be the German navy’s first passage through the strait since 2002.”“China claims sovereignty over democratically governed Taiwan, and says it has jurisdiction over the nearly 180-km (110 miles) wide waterway that divides the two sides and is part of the South China Sea. Taiwan strongly objects to China’s sovereignty claims and says only the island’s people can decide their future.”“‘The decision has not been taken yet,’ the commander of the naval task group, Rear Admiral Axel Schulz, told Reuters in a telephone interview, adding the weather would play a role.”“‘We are showing our flag here to demonstrate that we stand by our partners and friends, our commitment to the rules-based order, the peaceful solution of territorial conflicts and free and secure shipping lanes.’”

Insightful reporting from Oilprice.com on state of play of Russian gas imports to the European Union"Over the past two years, Europe has rapidly distanced itself from Russia’s energy commodities in protest to Russia’s war in Ukraine.""...Russiannatural gas importshave fallen from about 450 million cubic meters per day (mcm/d) at the end of 2021 to about 150 mcm/d currently.""The remaining gas flows are roughly split between LNG, pipeline flows through Ukraine and other pipeline routes (primarily flows via Turkey into Bulgaria as well as a small flow via Belarus into Lithuania). Europe has now emerged from two winter seasons with plenty of gas despite dramatically cutting Russian imports.""At first glance, that feat appears impressive. However, it belies the fact that the continent has made little progress in cutting any more Russian supplies in nearly two years despite calls from some nations to completely do away with Russian energy commodities even as the war in Ukraine shows no signs of slowing down." "Indeed, energy commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have reported that there has been zero progress in reducing imports since flows through the Nord Stream pipeline system ceased. On the contrary, Europe’s gas imports from Russia have climbed ~50% since Q1-2023.""Back in June, theEU approved sanctionson Russian gas, the first time it has done so ever since Russia invaded Ukraine. According to the Belgian EU presidency, the EU will hit Russia with unprecedented sanctions against its lucrative gas sector–a move that could potentially drain hundreds of millions from Moscow’s war chest.""...the penalties won’t hit the majority of Russia’s liquid natural gas (LNG) exports to the EU; instead, the proposed sanctions would prevent EU countries from re-exporting Russian LNG after receiving it and also ban EU involvement in upcoming LNG projects in Russia. The sanctions will also prohibit the use of EU ports, finance and services to re-export Russian LNG, essentially meaning that Russia would have to overhaul its LNG export model. Currently, Russia supplies LNG to Asia through Europe, with Belgium, Spain and France being major hubs.""Norway and the U.S. have replaced Russia as Europe’s biggest gas supplier: Last year, Norway supplied 87.8 bcm (billion cubic meters) of gas to Europe, good for 30.3% of total imports while the U.S. supplied 56.2 bcm, accounting for 19.4% of total."

Europe taking notice of tech start-ups' disruption in US defense industry..."...Like Nasa, the US Department of Defense relies increasingly on a new generation of Silicon Valley start-ups to sharpen its edge. Traditional defence contractors, including Boeing, Raytheon, Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics, known as the primes, are being disrupted.""On a lesser scale, defence tech is taking off in Europe. In July, the German AI defence start-up Helsing raised €450mn at a valuation of almost €5bn. Nato has launched a €1bn Europe-focused innovation fund to promote defence start-ups as well as the Diana accelerator programme. The European Investment Fund, the EU’s private finance wing, has prioritised defence investments. But a big drawback for European start-ups is the fragmentation of national defence procurement. 'Europe is very good on the supply side but not very good on the demand side,' says a European policymaker, supporting the creation of a European Iron Dome-style air defence system. 'If we were to provide such a demand signal it would be transformative.'"

"Rocket and missile motors have been one of the biggestchokepoints in the defense supply chain, alongside computer chips and metal forgings and castings. The shortfalls have limited the industry’s ability to respond to surging demand in Europe, the Middle East and Asia, according to company executives and Pentagon officials.""Lockheed Martin andRTXare the biggest makers of rockets and missiles such as the GMLRS used by the Himars launchers widely deployed in Ukraine and the more advanced SM-3 and SM-6 systems.""...Lockheed looked at deals with domestic andinternational partnersbefore settling on exclusive talks with General Dynamics around eight months ago.""The demand for missile engines has attracted a surge of new entrants over the past year from venture capital-backed firms such asAnduril IndustriesandUrsa Major Technologies, whichhave pledged to expandproduction with more automated factories.""Lockheed opted to go with General Dynamics, which already makes missile bodies and warheads, though it hadn’t previously produced solid rocket motors, which work like a firework to propel the explosive to its target.""Lockheed has boosted annual GMLRS production to around 10,000 missiles and plans to lift it to 14,000 missiles by the end of the year."

"The US LNG industry has boomed in recent years amid surging demand from abroad, especially as Europe seeks to wean itself off reliance on Russian gas in the wake of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.""The US overtook Australia in 2023 to become the world’s biggest exporter, shipping 11.9bn cubic feet a day of LNG — enough to satisfy the combined gas needs of Germany and France — and industry has ambitious plans to double exports by the end of the decade.""But despite the thirst for US molecules, the challenges in bringing new terminals online costing tens of billions of dollars are increasing.""The uncertainty in the US has caused some buyers to look abroad in a move industry players warn could derail some projects completely as anchor customers seek out contracts with clearer timeframes."

Continued threat of bilateral fallout after US arrest of Sinaloa Cartel leader..."For almost 40 years Ismael 'El Mayo' Zambada García eluded authorities while the Sinaloa cartel he co-founded grew into one of the world’s most powerful drug trafficking empires. But that luck ran out in dramatic fashion last month at a country ranch in northern Mexico.""But the incident has left Mexico — which has borne the brunt of the violence unleashed by drug cartels — reeling at the possibility it will complicate relations with the US, expose corruption and unleash more brutality. Officials are aggrieved, and President Andrés Manuel López Obrador this week said 'who knows' if US agents were involved. They say they are taking action to find out what really happened.""Mexico’s attorney-general opened an investigation for treason into whoever handed Zambada to a foreign power, and said in a statement that US authorities had not shared information it requested since about the plane.""The US has put away one Sinaloa kingpin, El Chapo, and its move to capture its other leaders has intensified as his children rose up the ranks and shifted the cartel towards the manufacturing of fentanyl, a deadly opioid that is the leading cause of death for young people in the US.""Zambada is a particularly valuable target for US agents because he was known as a key political and financial operator, two of the most sensitive areas of the cartel’s operation.""Mexico’s organised crime groups operate with protection from, and sometimes in partnership with, local and federal authorities, fresh details of which have been exposed during recent cartel-related prosecutions in the US.""The focus on Sinaloa may help the other large international drug trafficking group in Mexico: the Jalisco New Generation cartel, which security consultants say is driving much of the violence. The US and Mexico say they are pursuing both groups, but it has had more visible success with the former."

Insightful data on most valuable companies in Europe

Latest on transatlantic competition in aircraft manufacturing"In January this year, Airbus said its backlog had surged to a record 8,598 aircraft in 2023 and that its A320 was sold out until early into the next decade. The company has said it turned some customers away because of the lack of availability.""'Our trajectory is ambitious,' Scherer said. 'We’re on it, but our supply chain is not. We’ve got to whip the supply chain into shape.'"