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The NBA playoffs officially tip off Saturday. Tread lightly when betting on Game 1.
Many people, including myself, theorize about certain tactics teams might implement and which players are due for a good or bad series. But those prognostications usually don't come true in Game 1, if ever.
The first game of the series is a feeler for both teams. The lineup adjustments and tactical edges that might hurt or help a player usually come later. So, my advice is to not go overboard for Game 1.
If you haven't already, check out our series previews and picks for the East and West. Below, you can find our best bets for Saturday's slate and one bet for Sunday.
Cavs 1st-quarter spread: -1
The Cavs open their series against the Magic in Cleveland. Playing at home in front of an energetic crowd should be an advantage throughout the game, particularly in the opening quarter.
The Magic can't score consistently, but the first quarter is their least productive. Orlando's offensive rating is significantly worse in the first quarter compared to the other three.
The Magic are minus-3.7 per 100 possessions in the first quarter, the NBA's ninth-worst mark. The Cavs are plus-4 per 100 possessions in the opening frame, the league's eighth-best rating.
Cleveland should pounce on a vulnerable first-quarter team to open the playoffs.
Odds: -110
Devin Booker: Over 24.5 points
Booker is made for the playoffs. The Timberwolves have elite perimeter defenders, but Booker's skill trumps great defense. The Suns run a ton of pick-and-roll featuring Booker as the ball-handler. Minnesota plays drop coverage, which allows for pull-up jumpers, Booker's specialty.
Kevin Durant has acknowledged this is Booker's team. If the Suns advance past the first round, Booker will take them there. He averaged 33.7 points in 11 playoff games last year and scored at least 25 points in 10 of those.
Minnesota is a different beast defensively, but Booker finds his points regardless.
Odds: -105
76ers @ Knicks (-3, O/U 209)
As I wrote in the series preview, the Knicks-76ers duel is between two defensively sound, physical groups. That means everyone should anticipate low scores.
Both teams have elite defenses and the Knicks' offense excels when Jalen Brunson, who leads the league in dribbles, controls the pace. New York plays with the league's slowest pace.
Joel Embiid's conditioning to start the series is a concern, so the Sixers should want a slower pace for the big man's sake.
The atmosphere at Madison Square Garden will be electric and could rattle the Sixers' offense to start. The Knicks could be slightly rusty after six days off. Just under 55% of Knicks games went under the total this season.
A physical series where rebounding is paramount typically produces low-scoring results. That'll be the case in Game 1.
Pick: Under 209
Donte DiVincenzo: Under 17.5 points
While the stars - Embiid, Brunson, Tyrese Maxey - steal the headlines, this series will likely come down to role players. For the most part, superstars earn their points regardless of defensive coverages. Limiting the opposition's other strengths is key.
The 76ers' game plan will include limiting DiVincenzo's 3-point looks. He's been phenomenal in a larger role for the Knicks and solidified his place as one of the league's best long-range shooters.
But playoff defense is different from regular-season defense. DiVincenzo will experience more physicality coming off screens and see harder closeouts on his shots. The Knicks will have a hard time winning if DiVincenzo struggles, especially since Josh Hart hasn't been much of a scoring or shooting threat. The Sixers will successfully limit DiVincenzo in Game 1.
Odds: -110
Pacers @ Bucks (+1, O/U 231.5)
Game time: Sunday 7:10 p.m.
Giannis Antetokounmpo isn't playing in Game 1, and the Bucks don't have enough other pieces to carry the scoring load. Although Damian Lillard could torch the Pacers' suspect perimeter defenders, he's been inefficient and looked a step slow throughout the season.
The Pacers have a fast-paced style that Milwaukee struggled against during the regular season. The Bucks were 3-4 without Antetokounmpo and are minus-4.6 per 100 possessions with him on the bench. I don't see how Milwaukee can keep pace with Indiana's offense.
Pick: Pacers -1
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.
